Tina Turner famously sang “What’s love got to do with it” in her 1984 hit, but with the Avs falling five games in a row to kick off the new year, where the puck never seemed to bounce their way, with refs making or missing obvious calls that benefited the opposing team, it got me thinking, “what’s luck got to do with it?” With the number of injuries, loss after loss, and bad call after bad call, I couldn’t help but feel like the Avs were experiencing an unlucky spell. Yes, in some of those games, the Avalanche did not deserve to win due to poor on-ice performances, but after going 1-6-1, it felt like fate was against the Avs. Mark Twain had it right when he said, “When ill luck begins, it does not come in sprinkles, but it showers.”
I am not a statistician; hell, I even had to google to make sure that was the correct name (it is), but in our data-driven world, I figured someone would have studied luck in sports. They have, and in fact, there is a book about it. Michael Mauboussin, not a statistician, but an investment strategest wrote “The Success Equation,” and examines skill and luck across five regular seasons of five major sports leagues, and finds that hockey is the luckiest sport, with basketball being the most predictable. Another case led by MIT mathematician, Anette Hosoi, researched a similar concept but conducted her study as it relates to fantasy leagues; her findings were similar: hockey is lucky.
To come to these conclusions, they chiefly took into account the sample size of games played, the number of players and scoring chances. The NHL consists of 82 regular season games, compared to the NFL’s (now) 17. However, due the fast nature of hockey; our star athletes play short shifts that average under a minute, with a total time on ice of around 20 minutes out of a 60 minute contest. While a star quaterback will be on the field for every offensive play. Likewise, basketball’s Lebron James averages 38 minutes a game out of 48 minutes total. Additionally, hockey is traditionally a low scoring game. The average goals per NHL game is just over three, with around 30 shots on goal. Calculating the number of scoring chances gets a little murkier. If the puck hits the post, it isn’t counted as a shot on goal, but it is a scoring chance. No matter how you identify scoring chances, they are considerably lower than than the NBA, which is averaged 113 points per game in 2022.
Mathmatically speaking, I see how the numbers would align to suggest that hockey is more of a game of chance in relation to other sports. However, I still don’t buy it. I don’t like comparing professional sports. A tomato and a mango are both fruits, but that doesn’t mean they taste the same. Additionally, the whole notion of luck is subjective. Luck is defined as success or failure brought on by chance rather than one’s actions. But how can you quantity that a perfectly aligned pass that then bounces into the net off of the opponent’s skate is a result of luck or from years of practice passing the puck? If the Avalanche hit the the post, for us, that would be bad puck luck, but for the opposing team, it is fortuitous. I find the notion of measuring an objective entity superfluous.
However, I do agree with Mauboussin in relation to predictability. I can get on board with hockey being a more unpredictable sport. Last year, the Florida Panthers won the President’s Trophy for most points in the regular season, but lost in the second round of the playoffs. It’s not unheard of that a team will control the pace of the game, have more shots on goal, and still lose the game. The fast-paced low scoring enables it to be a game where one bounce can determine the outcome of the game. It is what makes the game so exciting, fun, and sometimes heart-stopping to watch.
Whether luck exists or not, the harder you work, the less you worry about it. After losing to the Chicago Blackhawks, the worst team in the league, last week, the Avs bounced back and defeated the Ottawa Senators 7-0 and are now on a five-game winning streak. Outscoring their opponents 23-6. The Avalanche did get Valeri Nichushkin back, which has certainly made an impact to the line up, but Makar has not played in the last three games due to injury. They had 33 shots on goal in their 2-3 loss against the Blackhawks and the same amount in their touchdown win over the Senators. I don’t think the Avalanche’s level of play was much different in either of those games. What makes the difference is mentality. After winning only one game out of eight, the Avs didn’t give up. They continued to play their game and stayed focused. I’ve seen the Avs do that in a singular game, where the puck doesn’t go their way, but they keep pressing and working on getting the puck in the net. Sometimes it doesn’t pay off, but usually, it does. Some losses you can chalk up to a couple of fortuitous bounces, but over time, the better-skilled team is going to win out. You don’t win the Stanley Cup because of luck alone. No amount of numerical data will ever change my mind.
After five solid wins, the Avs are back to where they were. Mikko Rantanen has scored 32 goals this season, the fastest to ever get to 30 goals in a season by any Avalanche player in history. After getting relief from the return of Francouz, Georgiev had a strong game in their win against the Calgary Flames, sustaining the team in the third period, where they were outshot 13-4, and Frankie came up big, stopping all shootout attempts by Seattle on Saturday. Ten days ago, the Avs were six points out of the playoffs, today, they are back in the last spot.
With all of this being said, I prefer the French poet Jean Cocteau’s perspective on luck best: “We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?”